American baseball player Lawrence “Yogi” Berra is quoted as observing, “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.” Whether he actually said it or not, the point is worth it. Anyway, here are ten predictions for the world for the coming year.
First, the war in Ukraine, the main issue of 2022, will continue, although less. Both Russia and Ukraine will not be able to achieve a complete military victory, if victory is defined as defeating the other side and defining the issue of the war zone or the political end. And the delegates will not win, if victory is defined as getting an agreement that the two governments are willing to sign and obey. Peace requires leaders who are willing and able to compromise, two things that are not obvious (albeit for different reasons) on both sides. Second, with many policymakers focused on the ability to fight against Taiwan, it seems impossible in 2023. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has his hands full as the wave of Covid-19 cases continues. cover his country’s health system, asking questions. for the power of the communists, and caused the economy to shrink. China has not given up on its goal of taking control of Taiwan, by force if necessary; but as he continues to increase pressure on Taiwan, he is likely to postpone aggressive action for at least a few years.
Third, the sleeper story of the year will be Japan’s emergence as a major geopolitical player. Economic growth in the world’s three largest economies has been revised to 1.5%, and defense spending continues to double, reaching 2% of gross domestic product.
Japan, which has one of the most powerful armies in the region, will join forces with the United States to prevent or, if necessary, defend itself against China’s invasion of Taiwan. Even more so for Germany, 2023 will be the year Japan enters the post-World War II era.
Fourth, North Korea is almost certain to conduct what will be its seventh nuclear test, in addition to repeated missile tests. Neither South Korea nor the United States will be able to prevent such actions, while China, the only country that can do so, will refrain from using its great power for fear of upsetting its neighbors. Give up and initiate change can cause chaos in it. territory. external.
Fifth, transatlantic relations, strong for this time because of a common sense to resist the invasion of Russia and help Ukraine, will suffer from increased conflict, due to European dissatisfaction with protectionism economy and American dissatisfaction with the continent’s continued economic dependence on China. . . The alliance may also suffer from the emerging conflict over the end of the war, economic and diplomatic support for Ukraine and the level of defense spending.
Sixth, it is expected that the world economy will grow more slowly than many observers are currently expecting. The International Monetary Fund predicts overall growth of 2.7%, but the reality may be lower, due to the negative impact of China’s control of Covid-19 and the position of the US Federal Reserve, which seems determined continue to raise interest rates in an effort to reduce inflation.
Political unrest in parts of Africa and Latin America, extreme weather events and supply chain disruptions will also be a drag on global economic performance. Seventh, the annual UN Climate Change Conference (COP28, to meet in Dubai) will continue to disappoint. Because of short-term economic concerns rather than long-term climate considerations, the effects of global warming may be worse before they get worse…even worse. Eighth, Israeli-Palestinian relations will become more and more violent as Israel’s settlement activity grows and diplomacy shows that there is no prospect of creating a Palestinian state on terms that Israelis and Palestinians can accept. Instead, a future that can be described as a “non-state solution” will come closer to reality. Ninth, India will continue to disappoint those who predict great things for it. India will continue to buy arms and oil from Russia and cling to a position of non-alignment even as it seeks greater help from the West against China.
And at home, the danger is that India will continue to become increasingly ungenerous and unprofitable.
